Yes, I know "the only poll that counts" ... . Still, on these numbers the NDP would be wiped out.
Latest poll gives Tories 9-point lead over Grits
By Andrew Mayeda,
Canwest News Service
September 14, 2009 6:02 PM
OTTAWA - Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives continue to hold a commanding lead over their political rivals, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff risks taking the blame in the event of a fall election that Canadians clearly do not want, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.
At the same time, the NDP have slid to their lowest level of support since the last election, suggesting party leader Jack Layton has an incentive to at least temporarily prop up the Harper government.
The Conservatives have the support of 39 per cent of decided voters, according to the Ipsos Reid survey, commissioned by Canwest News Service and Global National. The Tory support level is unchanged from the last Ipsos national poll on Aug. 21.
The Liberals have 30 per cent support, up two percentage points from Aug. 21. The NDP dropped two points to 12 per cent, while the Green party fell two points to eight per cent. The NDP received 18 per cent support in the last federal election in October 2008, but have fallen to 12 per cent in four separate Ipsos polls since then.
The Bloc Quebecois received nine per cent on a national basis. Seven per cent of respondents were undecided.
James Morton
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3 comments:
This is only a rough estimate. I used the UBC Election Forecaster to help me with my numbers.
I decided to transfer 8 out of 100 NDP votes to the Conservatives and 26 out of 100 to the Liberals. That leaves the NDP with 66 out of 100. Based on these transfer of votes, the Conservatives would win 150 seats, Liberals-101, Bloc-46, Other-2, and NDP-9. Jack Layton's political career would be finished.
Please note that my predictions are only estimates.
Also, the percentage of votes for each party roughly corresponds with the poll shown above.
You have to correct for the fact that it's Ipsos Reid. As 308 notes, "Nationally, IR is the most favourable pollster for the Conservatives. On average, they poll more than 3-points higher than anyone else. They are the least favourable pollster for the NDP, polling them more than 2 points lower than the other pollsters."
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
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