By-Elections

We have three by-elections for early September and some are saying this will be a litmus test for the next general election.



Maybe.



My sense is that the Conservatives aren't likely to win any of the seats so ordinary Liberal victories won't mean much. But Liberal losses would be significant.



The vacant Quebec ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie in Montreal and nearby Saint Lambert will hold by-elections on September 8, as will the Guelph riding in Southwestern Ontario. The Westmount and Guelph ridings were both held by the Liberals, while Saint Lambert went to the Bloc Quebecois in 2004.



Prime Minister Harper had until Saturday to announce the elections, and the earliest possible date they could have been held was September 2.



There is little doubt that the earlier by-elections called by the Prime Minister were chosen to ensure the Conservatives looked strong (although the NDP's Thomas Mulcair's upset victory in Outremont last year was an unexpected plus for Harper).



These by-elections could return two Liberals and a Bloc member without meaning much. In fact, since the Conservatives aren't likely to win anything a loss for the Liberals would be an upset -- the Liberals have far more to lose than the Conservatives. (That said, a win in Saint Lambert would be sweet, but I'm not holding my breath)



A Liberal news release quotes Stephane Dion as saying:



"Canadians will use the three federal byelections called in Quebec and Ontario today to send Prime Minister Stephen Harper a strong message that they don't like the way he is running the country."



Huge Liberal majorities may signal such a message, of course, any Conservative wins would signal something else; but absent such results the by-elections may not mean very much.