Crime and Voters

"The fact that crime is down is quite real; of course, one might argue that's because of the increasingly tough sanctions imposed first by the Liberal and now by the Conservative government.

Regardless, there is a perception that crime is increasing. And perception of crime is critical; disorderly conduct, begging and public intoxication overshadow, at least at the emotional level, a drop in, say, car theft.

A sensible crime policy is based on facts and not emotions. Such a policy must take into account not only Canadians fears of crime but also the actual decrease in crime.

Moreover, most crime is, at root, a mental health issue -- being 'tough' on such crime is meaningless because the criminals are not rational actors and will never be deterred from bad conduct. Holding criminals accountable makes sense only when they have the capacity to make choices.

But saying some 'criminals' are beyond the justice system does not mean they should be allowed to rampage through Canada; rather it means they must be dealt with in another way.

Real reform must require diverting crime caused by drugs and mental health issues from the justice system to the health system, albeit on a mandatory treatment basis. Those who respond can be re integrated in society while those who do not must be separated, perhaps forever, from society. Such reform is far from soft on crime and might actually make a difference.

Crime ought not be used as a tool to scare voters; the issue is far too important for that. jcm"

Less crime could hurt law-and-order Tories at the polls, experts say

July 17, 2008

Steve Rennie, THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA - Canada's national crime rate fell in 2007 for the third straight year, with declines in everything from homicides and gun crimes to minor property offences, says a new report.

And some say numbers released Thursday by Statistics Canada could strip some political ammunition away from the Conservative government, which has styled itself as the party that's toughest on crime.

"If crime rates continue to come down, then eventually the level of fear will not rise, but it might actually taper off or stabilize, in which case the usefulness of it as a ballot question for the Conservatives will weaken over time," said Bruce Anderson, president of polling firm Harris-Decima.

Statistics Canada says the seven per cent drop in the national crime rate was led by falling counterfeiting offences and theft under $5,000, including fewer break-ins and stolen cars.

Robbery committed with a firearm declined 12 per cent from the previous year, hitting its lowest point in three decades.

The numbers fly in the face of popular media and political messaging, which portrays crime across Canada as rising in both volume and ferocity.

Statistics Canada reports there were fewer serious violent offences such as homicides, attempted murders, sexual assaults and robberies last year. Police reported 594 murders, down slightly from 606 in 2006, following a long-term downward trend that began in the mid-1970s.

Serious assaults, including those with a weapon, basically stayed unchanged in 2007 after rising in each of the previous seven years.

The overall crime rate among youth aged 12 to 17 tapered off slightly in 2007 after rising the year before, as non-violent offences fell and violent crime remained stable.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has dismissed empirical evidence that crime rates are actually falling, suggesting that emotion is a more telling barometer. Harper has cast those who point to statistics to oppose elements of the Tory law-and-order agenda as apologists for criminals.

"(They) try to pacify Canadians with statistics," he told party supporters in January.

"Your personal experiences and impressions are wrong, they say; crime is really not a problem. These apologists remind me of the scene from the Wizard of Oz when the wizard says, 'Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."'

That assertion was echoed Thursday by Justice Minister Rob Nicholson.

"We are not governing by statistics. We are governing by what we promised Canadians in the last election and what Canadians have told us," he said in an interview.

A keystone of the Tories' fall agenda is expected to be tackling violent youth crime, one trouble spot in the Canadian record. It has been increasing steadily over the last two decades, said Statistics Canada, and the rate in 2007 was "more than double that reported in the mid-1980s."

Last week, Harper reiterated his party's pledge to deal with the "escalating problem of violent youth crime" when Parliament resumes in the fall.

"We must send a message - and we will - that we hold young lawbreakers responsible for their behaviour. That is what we intend to do this coming session," he told party faithful at the Calgary Stampede.