Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear

Dan Gardner, a senior Ottawa journalist, has written an interesting book about how people commonly estimate wrongly risk and reality.



His thesis is that our brains were adapted for life as hunter gathers and not as modern internet surfers and this leads to bugs in the system.



Whether that thesis is right Gardner's book is worth a read especially for political types -- it offers lots of practical ways to try sway people's votes.



Just one example.



In the Ford/Carter Presidential race a study was done. A group of people were asked to imagine the swearing in of newly elected President Ford. Another group was asked to imagine the same for President Carter. Each group was then asked to estimate the likelihood of Ford or Carter winning.



Compared to a further control group, the people who imagined Ford being swore in had a significantly higher estimate of his chances of winning. Those who imagined the Carter swearing in had a higher estimate of Carter's chance.



Since people tend to vote for the person they perceive will win (other things being equal) asking people to imagine, say, a Liberal majority will make them more likely to expect one and more likely to vote Liberal. Hence, a political ad talking about what, say, Stephane Dion and the Liberals will do in their first Throne Speech might have great traction.