Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories still hold a wide lead in Manitoba, but the margin is getting slimmer, according to a new poll.
The Tories enjoy the support of about 43 per cent of Manitobans -- right where they were after the January 2006 election when they formed a minority government. But that's down six percentage points since March, according to a poll taken in June by Probe Research for the Free Press.
The Liberals, who could be facing tough fights in two Winnipeg ridings, have about 28 per cent of voter support, up four points. And the NDP still trail in third with the support of 23 per cent of the province's voters.
"We're pretty much where we were in the election," Probe president Scott MacKay said. "That sort of suggests there'd be an instant replay if we were to have an election in the next little while."
MacKay said he's not sure what's behind the decline in Tory support. It could be blowback from the Maxime Bernier affair, where Harper's former foreign affairs minister was found to have left confidential documents at the home of his Montreal girlfriend who had connections to outlaw biker gangs. Or it could be that the Liberals saw a tiny spike due to support for their carbon tax proposal.
According to Probe, the Tories have suffered a sharp decline in support in rural ridings which are their heartland. Outside Winnipeg, support stands at 51 per cent, down from the massive 62 per cent last March.
A dip in support could mean the heat is off in two key ridings the Tories are targeting next election -- Winnipeg South Centre now held by Liberal MP Anita Neville and St. Boniface now held by Liberal MP Ray Simard. And it could mean Tory MP Rod Bruinooge may be in a battle to keep the Winnipeg South seat he won by 111 votes from Liberal cabinet Minister Reg Alcock two years ago in what was once of the biggest upsets from the last campaign.
Bruinooge said he isn't concerned about the erosion of Conservative support. He said all polls take a snapshot in time and that he's confident that, when an election comes, voters in his riding and across Canada will give the Harper government another mandate.
He wouldn't speculate on why the Tories have seen their support slip, especially in rural ridings.
An election must happen in October 2009, if Harper's minority government isn't toppled before then.
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