Conservatives, Bloc in virtual tie in Quebec, poll finds

Quebec will be key in the coming election

RHÉAL SÉGUIN
From Friday's Globe and Mail

The Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois are deadlocked in a virtual tie in Quebec, with polling numbers suggesting that Stephen Harper is poised to make major inroads in the province as he prepares to call an election this weekend.

The poll conducted by Léger Marketing for The Globe and Mail and the Montreal daily Le Devoir finds that the majority of Quebeckers are satisfied with the Conservative government, but still perceive the Bloc as being best suited to defend Quebec's interests in Ottawa. The survey also finds Quebec voters have serious doubts about Stéphane Dion's leadership credentials.

According to the poll, voters have less confidence in the Liberal Leader than they do in Mr. Harper on issues such as the economy, public finances, inter-provincial relations and fighting the war in Afghanistan.

However, Mr. Dion is viewed as a stronger leader on the environment and in promoting Canadian and Quebec culture.

According to the poll, conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 3, 30 per cent of Quebeckers would vote for the Conservatives, another 30 per cent would vote Bloc Québécois, 23 per cent for the Liberals, 11 per cent for the NDP and 5 per cent for the Green Party.

"The question Quebeckers will be asking is do they want a majority Conservative government. If the answer is no they will vote Bloc, and if the answer is yes they will vote Conservative," said pollster Jean-Marc Léger, the president of Léger Marketing. "This is at the heart of the campaign in Quebec. Quebeckers believe Stephen Harper will form the next government. They just aren't sure yet whether it should be a majority or a minority government."

In the 2006 election, the Bloc received slightly more than 42 per cent of the vote, compared to the Tories' 25 per cent and the Liberals' nearly 20 per cent. The Bloc won 51 of the province's 75 ridings that year, the Liberals 13 and, in a major breakthrough, the Tories won 10 seats, mostly in the Quebec City region. Once again, the Harper Conservatives are striking at the heart of the Bloc's traditional support in the province's predominantly francophone areas. In the Quebec City region, the poll shows, the Conservatives have 50 per cent in popular support, well ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 20 per cent and the Liberals at 11 per cent.

In other predominantly francophone regions, the survey finds the Bloc holding on to the slimmest of leads with 35 per cent of popular support, followed closely by the Conservatives at 34 per cent, with the Liberals trailing at 20 per cent.

"The race is wide open, and outside of Montreal it is a two-way race between the Bloc and the Conservatives where the Liberals are being squeezed out of the picture," Mr. Léger said.

The Montreal region still remains fertile ground for Mr. Dion's Liberals, with 29 per cent of support, especially among the metropolitan area's anglophone and ethnic communities. Support for the Bloc was at 28 per cent in voter-rich Montreal, while the Harper Conservatives, who have yet to win a seat on the Island of Montreal, were at 22 per cent.

Full story here:

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James Morton
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