Friday, September 12, 2008

Harper well into majority territory -- 15% lead poll


This is remarkable. I don't really know what else to say -- we may be facing a very long four years... .


Ottawa Bureau

OTTAWA — Despite several missteps in the first week of campaigning, the Conservatives under leader Stephen Harper have gained momentum among Canadian voters that could win a majority government, according to a new poll.


The Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey conducted from Monday through Thursday this week shows the Conservatives leading its opponents nationwide with a 41 per cent approval rating.


That's a 15-point lead over the Liberals who trail behind at 26 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent, the Greens at 9 per cent, and the BQ at 8 per cent.


In key battleground regions, the Conservative efforts at promoting Harper's leadership as steady and competent appear to be paying off.


In Ontario, the Conservatives have an approval rating of 41 per cent, taking a big lead over the Liberals. Under leader Stéphane Dion, the Liberals trail at 34 per cent in what used to be a party stronghold, followed by the NDP at 13 per cent and the Greens at 11 per cent.


"In Ontario, it's a big switch," said Harris/Decima president Bruce Anderson.


Anderson called the Conservative momentum "remarkable" and attributes it to several things — the sheer volume of Conservative political advertising, compared to the other parties, and the effectiveness of their message, in giving voters reassurance about Harper and reasons to vote Conservative.


Full story:


http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/498157

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

It's not that complicated really. It's the fault of Dion and his f**king Green Shift boondoggle.

Oxford County Liberals said...

Nanos has the Cons only up by 7. Ekos by 10, but their rolling daily poll shows support for the Cons have been dropping this week every day.

As for the Green Shift, Strategic Council showed last night it has majority support in BC and Ontario. I think we need to simplfy our message on that, emphasize the tax breaks, and also start attacking Harper and his government more on his record - particularly in Ontario.

ALW said...

Ekos by 10, but their rolling daily poll shows support for the Cons have been dropping this week every day.

Except it doesn't. Are you familiar with "margin of error" Scott? If the margin of error is, say, +/-3, and the next poll is within 3 points, it could very well mean there's been no change. Or an uptick. Or a drop. There's simply no way to tell.

So maybe Tory support is going down. Or maybe it's staying the same. With one point drops, its even possible it's going up.

But I guess you can go back to convincing yourself than 7 to 15 point gap is the first step to a Liberal majority.

Anonymous said...

ALW said: "But I guess you can go back to convincing yourself than 7 to 15 point gap is the first step to a Liberal majority."

No kidding these are same guys who tried to convince the folks in my riding that Jag Bhaduria's Law Degree was authentic...and the Green Shift is revenue neutral...rrriggghhttt.

Sean Cummings said...

Dudes... the hard separatist vote is evaporating in Quebec. Nothing can stop that now and this is why the Tories stand to win a majority - doesn't matter what happens in Ontario. Tories only need to hold what they have and pick up in Quebec and it's game over in Hull dudes. They will get their majority.

Anonymous said...

it's too early to say what any of this means. A percentage in popular support is one thing, but how that actually translate into seats/ridings is quite another.

Anonymous said...

why dont you be positive intead of negative, whats the matter with you, secretly voting for harper are you, look at all the polls intead of bloging about the pro harper one...