UDI for Palestine

Palestinian leaders are toying with the idea of a unilateral declaration of independence – proclaiming a sovereignty that, in practice, they already have.

This development is hardly surprising. In early August, President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) proposed a unilateral declaration of independence as one of two Palestinian fall-back positions in the event final status negotiations for a two-state solution fail (his other fall-back option is a one-state solution).

Israel has a need for security and peace. Palestinians, as much as Jews, have aspirations as a people to a State. The resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute will come through a two-state solution -- the issue is not the answer to the problem but the road map to get this.

The Palestinian leadership has a de facto state at present. The Palestinian Authority holds elections, runs a court system, an education system and has armed police. As a factual matter there is a "state-like" apparatus in place. On the surface changing that de facto into a de jure state by officially declaring independence and seeking United Nations and other international recognition merely recognises the reality on the ground.

Of course, it is not certain the world would recognise Palestinian UDI -- it did not, after all, in 1988 when the Palestinian leadership-in-exile declared a state. But in 1988 there was not an established geographic area under control of the Palestinian Authority.

A newly-declared Palestinian state would almost certainly claim the 1967 green line boundary. Israel will have very serious problems with those proposed borders; security concerns will be the least of the difficulties. Some accommodation will have to be made -- this raises the issue of how to deal with settlements that exist today and the fact that Palestine claims territory it does not and never has held. The border issue poses significant problems. But negotiating borders between states is hardly something without historical precedent.

UDI could perhaps resolve the refugee issue. Palestinians would have a State so, perhaps, there would be no further debate over "right of return". Indeed, UDI might reflect Palestinian recognition that the insurmountable refugee problem has to be bypassed.

Israel might be well advised then to offer conditional recognition to a self-declared Palestinian state pending settlement of border and security issues. Solving those issues could be easier on a state-to-state basis, even if the outcome is a stable armistice agreement rather than an elusive end-of-conflict two-state solution.