Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Zimbabwe crisis in the hands of African leaders

Leaders in southern Africa have been given the task of persuading President Robert Mugabe to accept the results of Zimbabwe's elections, according to diplomatic sources.

South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki has been asked by US President George W. Bush to use his influence on Mugabe while Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete is seen as an important link man with the opposition, say the sources.

While the sensitive nature of the negotiations meant no sources would talk on the record, African and European diplomats confirmed that negotiations were under way.

"With African problems, there has to be an African solution," said one senior European diplomat based in Harare.

Many governments fear a repeat of the violence that erupted in Kenya after disputed elections in December which left about 1,500 dead.

Henri Mumba, deputy foreign affairs minister of Zimbabwe's near neighbour Malawi, said the overarching desire was for peace.

"The most important thing is that we hope the results will be accepted by all so that there is peace and tranquility in Africa," Mumba told AFP.

Mugabe, at 84 Africa's oldest leader, has never been known to take kindly to advice -- especially from some of the continent's younger leaders who lack his track record as a leader of a liberation movement.

But with the opposition having already proclaimed victory in the weekend polls, his options are limited and all sides want to dissaude him from ordering troops onto the streets.

Key to any solution is finding a way to reassure Mugabe that he will not be hung to dry over accusations of human rights violations and several sources said Mugabe may be given some kind of honourary role.

"Key people in the SADC region, like Mbeki, like Kikwete and others, they have developments here very high on their agenda," a second senior European diplomat told AFP from Harare.

"They are trying behind the scenes to influence the situation."

Mbeki was tasked by the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) last year with mediating between Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF and the opposition over the framework of the polls.

Relations between the West and the Mugabe regime have plummetted in recent years. The United States and the European Union imposed sanctions on the president and his inner circle after accusing him of rigging his 2002 re-election.

Ties between Zimbabwe and Britain have been particularly strained since the government began expropriating white-owned farms and Mugabe has consistently tried to portray the MDC as puppets of the former colonial master.

Given Mugabe's stance, the West has largely placed the responsibility for resolving the crisis in Zimbabwe -- where inflation is now running at over 100,000 percent -- in the hands of SADC and Mbeki.

SADC monitors dismayed the opposition on Sunday when it declared the elections, while not without flaws, had been credible.

However the SADC observer mission chief, Angolan Sports Minister Jose Marcos Barrica, has returned to Luanda and the diplomatic efforts are now in more senior hands.

A diplomat in Pretoria said the role of Kikwete, who hosted an emergency summit on Zimbabwe last March after Tsvangirai and other opposition leaders had been beaten up by the security forces, was seen as crucial.

"He has much less baggage than Mbeki," said the source, referring to MDC accusations that the South African president has been too soft on Mugabe.

Another Pretoria-based diplomat said it was understood that Bush and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown had asked Mbeki to intervene.

Brown said Tuesday that he had spoken to Kofi Annan, the former UN secretary general who mediated a power-sharing agreement in Kenya, and planned to speak to Kikwete.

One senior European diplomat said former Mozambican president Joaquim Chissano, who has a track record of mediation and was the best man at Mugabe's wedding, was understood to be in Harare. There was no official confirmation of Chissano's presence.


James Morton
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Toronto, Ontario
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