Hugely unpopular leader survives another day

Ehud Olmert, the Prime Minister of Israel reached a deal with his Labour Party rivals to extend his term.

JERUSALEM -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert demonstrated again Wednesday that he has not yet exhausted his many political lives.

The hugely unpopular leader of the Kadima-led centre-left coalition brokered a last-minute deal with his senior coalition partners from the Labour party in the early hours Wednesday. The move meant his government avoided defeat and the dissolution of the Knesset later in the day and that Mr. Olmert probably will be able to continue as prime minister until at least the fall.

"This is another rabbit that Olmert has pulled from his hat," said Asher Arian, a political scientist from Haifa University and a close follower of Israel's tortuous governing process.

"I am not surprised that Olmert has managed this. It is not so much because he is a talented politician, which he is, but that he has found compatriots who like him, wish to delay an election."

The binding arrangement that Mr. Olmert struck with Labour Leader Ehud Barak forces the prime minister to face a Kadima leadership primary by September 24. If Mr. Olmert had not agreed to the ultimatum, Mr. Barak said he was going to force a Knesset vote on Wednesday that would have led to the dissolution of the government and fresh elections.

"Olmert has proven again that he is the ultimate survivor," said pollster Rafi Smith of the Smith Research Institute. "It shows that in Israeli politics anything is possible."

The overnight election reprieve served both of the Ehud's interests. Mr. Olmert has bought a little more time as prime minister while Mr. Barak can claim that he forced the prime minister to put his leadership of Kadima and therefore his prime ministership on the line. More tellingly, perhaps, both Messrs. Olmert and Barak have conspired to avoid an early vote which polls have indicated would probably be won by Benjamin Netanyahu's right wing Likud Party.

"Voters are very fed up with Olmert but they will give him another three months because they have no choice," Mr. Asher said. "The question is whether voters will punish those who have cooperated with him. History shows us that the answer to that question is no."

Despite the deal, Mr. Olmert continues to face huge political problems. There have been mounting calls for his resignation because of an intensive police investigation into allegations that he illegally accepted campaign contributions from wealthy Jewish American donors. Even before this latest financial scandal, he had very little public support because he has been widely blamed for the inconclusive result of Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006.

It is still not clear that Mr. Olmert will stand for re-election when Kadima holds its primary in September, Rafi Smith said.

"Polls show that Kadima will lose more than half of its seats if Mr. Olmert is the leader, so he may not continue," the pollster said. "The data suggests that with [foreign minister] Tzipi Livni as leader, Kadima could once again have the largest party bloc after the election.

"But things can change rapidly in Israeli politics. With this deal, Mr. Olmert has bought himself some time and he thinks he will be able to use it to heal and to do something to survive. For example, if he can sign some sort of treaty with the Palestinians -- and that is what he is trying to do -- he might still have a chance."

The next chapter in Olmert's sordid legal saga is expected on July 17 when American campaign donor Morris Talansky is scheduled to testify for the second time, about money that he gave to the embattled prime minister when he was mayor of Jerusalem and a minister in former prime minister Ariel Sharon's government. If he is indicted, Mr. Olmert has promised to resign.

Until then, the Israeli leader continues to mastermind a blitz of direct peace talks with the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority and indirect peace talks with Syria, as well as continuing a ceasefire with Hamas and discussing possible prisoner exchanges with Hezbollah and Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since a bloody coup chased Fatah out of the Palestinian enclave 12 months ago.

The Gaza truce, which began last Thursday, was shattered by several rockets fired into Israel on Tuesday from the territory. Israel responded by closing border crossings and reimposing an economic blockade. If there are no more attacks the crossings may reopen on Thursday.