LORNE GUNTER in today's Post suggests that a Conservative Majority is still possible. I hope not but he makes a very good point and one we ought to be very aware of -- now is not the time to stop working very very hard in the election:
"There are plenty of reason to think the Tories may still win a majority next Tuesday.
For instance, they only need to increase their share of the popular vote by about two percentage points from 2006 (38% up from 36%) to claim a majority of seats in the House of Commons, thanks to the fragmentation on the left. This would not be unlike 1997, when fragmentation on the right helped elect a Liberal majority with just 38% of the popular vote.
Most polls show a dip in Conservative support from 38-40% in mid-campaign to 34-36% now. Yet, since parties on the right tend to poll two or three points below their actual levels of support, the Tories are either still in majority territory or on the doorstep.
If I had to bet now, I would say Mr. Harper and his party will win a narrow majority, if only because as Tory support softens, no one party of the left has been the sole beneficiary of the migratory voters.
Here the Liberals or NDP benefit from a Tory decline, there it’s the Bloc or even the Greens. Most often, they each pick up a little, but none draws near enough new support to pose a true challenge. Just as fragmented thoughts are usually incoherent, so are fragmented oppositions"
3 comments:
Its good to be reminded of this although I hope its a low possibility, now is not the time to take anything for granted.
The Tories still lead in the polls.
Gunter is dreaming!
I challenge anyone to find a POSITIVE piece this so called journalist has written about Dion and the Liberals.
Grunter is forever whistling past the graveyard when the neo-Tories make a mistep. Carry his logic through to its conclusion and you would think that the votes the Conservatives may lose won't harm them because, why exactly? Because the Tories are going to win their seats in landslides! In fact, a few points here or there could cause the Whigs a great deal of trouble.
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