Harper Majority Quite Possible

Scott Reid (former communications director for Paul Martin):

First of all, let's state the obvious. This campaign is very close. However, that doesn't necessarily mean the result will be.

Indeed, what makes this election mesmerizing is that with the NDP and Greens running so high, the campaign's outcome remains very hard to predict. Even at this late hour, plausible scenarios vary from a majority Harper government with the Bloc Quebecois as Official Opposition to a surprise Liberal minority.

For the Conservatives — fighting to survive only a few days ago — a majority mandate has again become their secret ambition. Three priorities must be met to succeed.

First, they need to fashion a more direct appeal to women — whose support will make all the difference in key Ontario swing seats.

Second, they have to keep those NDP and Green voters highly motivated; any shift of support to the Liberals could undo Harper's ambitions. Expect to see Stephen Harper take the occasional swipe at Jack Layton this weekend and, at the barest hint of strategic voting, he will surely engage Elizabeth May in order to rally her troops.

Last and most important of all, the Conservatives must avoid any public discussion that a majority government could be within reach. Canadians do not want to facilitate that outcome. Mr. Harper cannot afford to set a date and send out invitations. If he wants his majority, he'll have to elope under veil of night.
James Morton