Majority? Maybe Not

Canadian PM could fail to win majority in Oct 14 vote: polls

Flagging support for the Conservatives in French-speaking Quebec, and the rise of an Anything But Harper campaign ahead of the October 14 vote, is compromising the Tories' overall lead in voter support, pollsters said.

An Angus Reid poll for the Toronto Star, Canada's biggest newspaper, put support for the Conservatives at 40 percent, compared with 25 percent for the main opposition Liberals, after a week that pitted the major party leaders in televised debates.

Another public opinion poll -- by Ipsos Reid on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global National television news -- put the Conservatives at 37 percent against 23 percent for the Liberals.

But both surveys revealed a decline for Harper in Quebec, which accounts for 75 seats in the 308-seat House of Commons, which is elected in a British-style first-past-the-post system.

Ipsos Reid put Conservative support in Quebec at 18 percent, far behind 40 percent for the Bloc Quebecois, which promotes Quebec sovereignty and fields candidates only in the province.

Angus Reid equally put Bloc support in Quebec at 40 percent, with 28 percent backing Harper's conservatives.

Both polling institutes said Harper's setback in Quebec was due in large part to his government slashing 45 million Canadian dollars (30.2 million euros, 41.6 million US dollars) in cultural programs -- a move that has rattled Quebec artists.

"The actual possibility of the Tories winning a majority might be curbed because of the increased popularity of the Bloc in Quebec, or because if people start to vote strategically," said Mario Canseco, vice president of public affairs at Angus Reid.

Canseco also noted the Canada-wide rise of an Anything But Harper movement that brings together Liberals, the socialist New Democratic Party and the fledgling Greens to consider voting for anyone so long as it prevents a Conservative triumph.