But a sense is pretty clear -- the BQ is way way ahead in Quebec followed by the Liberals with the Conservative trailing.
Ontario though is close with a slight Tory edge.
That means Ontario is the key and if we get out the vote solidly we might have a Prime Minister Dion. Flip side, if we fail, there may be a majority Conservative government ... .
James Morton
5 comments:
C'mon Ontario!! Let's make the difference! Get out and vote. Let's show the Conservative's that we really mean something!
I think the Liberals are going to be in a very difficult position after this election.
They have probably not performed well enough to form the government but, at the same time, Dion did well enough that he deserves another shot.
Like Liberal leaders before him, Dion can rightfully claim that he should get to fight one more election. After all, he seems to have secured the parties' base, likely held on to the Official Opposition post from the NDP and resurrected the party from being wiped out in Quebec.
Also to be factored into this equation is the financial state of the party. Can they mount another leadership campaign right now? How divisive would this be for the Liberals (Iggy-Rae splitting the party just like Martin-Chretien)?
A final consideration, if Dion puts his leadership to a vote of the party faithful, he might do okay. After all, the party base is further to the left than where the party sees itself. Dion would probably have surprising strength with this group after campaigning on the carbon tax, women's representation, Kelowna and poverty.
Do Liberals want him back? Will they go out and vote Liberal knowing that this is the outcome they will be securing?
Interesting times.
James:
For the Conservatives to win a majority government they would have to sweep Ontario.
The Conservatives will probably lose seats in the East and Quebec. Their support in the West is at the same level as 2006 so they will be able to hold what they have there, give or take a couple of seats, but they will not realize any big gains.
So, that means they need to win virtually all of the seats in Ontario to achieve a majority government. Nothing is impossible I guess but such an outcome is highly improbable.
Like the NDP the Conservatives suffer from a lack of efficiency of its support. Too much of it is focused in certain parts of Canada.
Barring seismic shifts on voter support in all parts of the country over the next couple of days I suspect we will see another weak Conservative minority government Wednesday morning.
Here’s what Elizabeth May has to say about strategic voting;
“Strategic voting makes no sense, says May
On Tuesday, Canada needs to elect Green Party MPs, leader Elizabeth May said today.
“Media reports and suggestions from other parties that I am urging strategic voting across the country or that backroom deals are being made are complete nonsense,” Ms. May said. “As I have said over and over, strategic voting is generally not a sound strategy at all and I do not support it. Canada needs to elect Green MPs.“
Ms. May was responding in particular to the headline and opening of a Globe and Mail story that directly contradicts what she said to the reporter.
“I clearly said that voting strategically as advice is pretty useless. I also said: ‘Suggesting one should jump away from the Green Party is very bad advice indeed.’
“We have a strong team of candidates across Canada. Every one of them is working hard to win and this much we know for sure: Canada needs Green MPs. I intend to win in my riding of Central Nova and I want to be joined by a strong caucus of MPs, like Adriane Carr in Vancouver Centre, Blair Wilson, Mike Nagy, Dick Hibma, John Fryer, Huguette Allen and others. We are running strong campaigns across this country.
“The best outcome of the election will be the defeat of the Harper government and the election of as many Green MPs as possible.”
Ms. May noted that support for her leadership, and the Green Party and its forward-looking policies continue to rise.
“Perhaps what is worrying the other parties is the strong support the Green Party has received from Canadians in this election. In this election we will elect our first MPs.
“I want to do politics in a much different way, with collaboration, civility and respect. But I am not making deals with other parties, and the Greens are not in discussions with other parties.
“I will say it once again so absolutely no one can be confused or misled: I want Canadians to elect Green MPs.””
ottlib:
I'm not so sure an Ontario sweep is required for a Con majority. There will be some razor thin races in the 905 and 519, and in mixed urban/rural ridings that will be decided by the vote split. If the libs lose all the close votes and are beaten back to safe GTA ridings, they could be down to 30 Ontario seats, which I think would mean Con majority. Remember, the Cons start every election with a near sweep of Alberta, Sask, and the BC interior.
James is also right, in that a if a late surge puts the close ridings back in the Lib column (including close Lib/NDP seats), they could be at 70 Ontario seats and minority govt. The true result will most likely be in the middle (Con minority), but the polls are not encouraging. At present, Con majority is probably second most likely, followed by Lib minority in third.
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