Michael Ignatieff will shortly become leader of the Liberal Party, but not in the way he ever expected.
When Mr. Ignatieff returned to Canada from Harvard in 2005, he was going to run for Parliament, be appointed a minister in the majority government of Paul Martin and some time later, when Mr. Martin left, have a go at the leadership.
Nothing worked as Mr. Ignatieff anticipated. He never got to be a minister, because Mr. Martin lost the 2006 election. He had to run for the top job too early, and fell short.
When he lost to Stéphane Dion, who knew how poorly the Liberals would do under Mr. Dion's leadership? Who knew how badly and quickly Mr. Dion's abortive coalition with the NDP, supported by the Bloc Québécois, would unravel? And who knew, when the two men faced each other in the last leadership contest, how wide would become the gap in support between Mr. Ignatieff and his friend and rival, Bob Rae.
At that convention, on the third ballot, Mr. Ignatieff commanded 34.5 per cent of the votes, Mr. Rae 26.5 per cent. Two hundred and eighty-five delegate votes separated them.
Since then, the gap in the party has widened. Mr. Ignatieff now has more support in the party than Mr. Rae does, and more, relatively speaking, than at the last convention.
So Mr. Rae yesterday was playing a defensive game, trying to give himself a bit more time to narrow that gap by suggesting a one-person, one-vote choice of a new leader in January.
The Rae gambit will fail. The party's constitution seems clear: When a leader resigns, as Mr. Dion was forced to do yesterday, the party caucus recommends a temporary replacement to the national executive.
Of course, the national executive consists, in part, of the leaders of provincial wings of the Liberal Party. These are chosen, in turn, by the rank and file, so they might feel under some pressure to let the members vote, even if provision for such a vote is not found in the constitution.
Even if Mr. Rae's request for a one-person, one-vote contest is approved, Mr. Ignatieff would likely win.
Mr. Ignatieff has the greatest amount of caucus support, so his name will be forwarded to the national executive. If the executive follows the caucus, he will become interim leader. Unless he botches the leadership, he will be crowned permanent leader at the scheduled party convention in May. This coronation is what Mr. Rae is trying to stop.
Mr. Ignatieff opened his lead over Mr. Rae for a variety of reasons, including having been longer in the Commons, during which he cultivated contacts with MPs and traveled the country. Some of the people who had organized his leadership campaign kept working, not so much to undermine Mr. Dion as to make sure that Mr. Ignatieff would be in good shape should Mr. Dion falter.
Mr. Ignatieff genuinely impressed fellow caucus members and some big hitters in the Liberal backrooms. He has attracted excellent organizers who were either neutral or supported also-ran candidates last time. He has created an aura of inevitability about him - an aura that might be exaggerated, but nonetheless exists.
Mr. Rae has been hurt by the economic downturn, fate being sometimes cruel to politicians. That downturn has Liberals scared that it would tie the party under his leadership to Mr. Rae's record as premier of Ontario during the recession of the early 1990s.
Visions of Conservative attack ads reminding voters of Mr. Rae's record in Ontario frighten Liberals.
Mr. Rae said yesterday he had answered repeated questions about his record, and indeed he has. But to this day, he has not found the right narrative for enough Liberals or the public about why he governed as he did, and, more important, what lessons he learned as an NDP premier about the movement of which he was once a member, and why being a Liberal is a better fit for him, Ontario and the country.
James Morton
1100 - 5255 Yonge Street
Toronto, Ontario
M2N 6P4
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