Three dimensional chess and Stephen Harper

John Ivison suggests that Stephen Harper is just in fireman mode -- running about putting out fires without dealing with any long term issues.

That may be right, and certainly the events of the last month caught Harper off guard.

But tactical losses do not mean there is no overall strategy. While I would not go so far as to suggest Stephen Harper's political thinking is perfect -- he tends to be too clever for his own good -- I cannot believe he is acting without thought.

John Ivison: Harper mounts an assault built on retreat

Either Stephen Harper is playing three dimensional chess at such an advanced level that he's bamboozled his political opponents, or he's winging it, in the hope that he doesn't land himself in checkmate. The latest in a series of policy reversals strongly suggests the latter. Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty said this week that he and Mr. Harper had resolved their disagreement over the distribution of seats in Parliament when they met in Ottawa. "I spoke to him about that and I think we've fixed it," the Premier said. The inference was that Mr. McGuinty had won his battle to have Ontario allocated more than the 10 new seats in the House of Commons the government had proposed under legislation that would have seen representation in the House more closely aligned with growing populations. Under the original plan, B.C. was set to received an additional seven seats and Alberta another five. Most people have leapt to the conclusion that Mr. McGuinty's declaration of victory means Ontario is set to get another 21 seats, the number that would correspond to its population, when the legislation is re-introduced. However, sources say the number is more likely to end up being in the mid-range between 10 and 20 new seats. The motivation for revamping the legislation remains unclear but insiders say new Minister for Democratic Reform, Steven Fletcher, was asked to make nice with Ontario. This suggests Mr. Harper has had second thoughts about his decision to declare war on the province when he sent his Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty, to Toronto last spring, to attempt to lay the blame for the coming economic slowdown at Mr. McGuinty's door. "I've been tasked by the Prime Minister to come up with a formula that reflects the reality of Canada and respects Canadians' sense of fair play," said Mr. Fletcher in an interview yesterday. "I will be introducing legislation when Parliament resumes and I think most reasonable people will agree with the balance that is struck."Those who subscribe to the theory that Mr. Harper is a latter day Jean-Luc Picard, several chess moves ahead of his dim-witted opponents, might argue that the Prime Minister is simply turning to Ontario, now that he has been frustrated in Quebec. In this light, another 15 or so seats in Ontario boosts his chances of a majority. This remains a possibility but a closer look at the ridings from which new seats might be carved suggests that the Liberals are as likely to gain as the Conservatives. Of the 13 seats in Ontario with a population of more than 130,000 at the last election, five were "safe" Liberal seats (that is, won by more than 5% of the vote), four were "safe" Conservative seats, two were marginal Liberal wins and two were marginal Conservative victories.

Full story here: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/12/18/john-ivison-harper-mounts-an-assault-built-on-retreat.aspx
James Morton
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