Tory support plummets in Quebec, poll finds

Tory support plummets in Quebec, poll finds
DANIEL LEBLANC

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail


OTTAWA — Conservative support has plunged in Quebec, according to a new poll that suggests the party would lose some of its 10 seats in the province if an election were held today and would again be unable to form a majority government.

The party has benefited in the rest of the country from the “afterglow” of U.S. President Barack Obama's recent to visit to Ottawa, regaining the lead over the Liberal Party, but it may not be enough to make up for the big drop in Quebec.

Only 10 per cent of Quebeckers would vote for the Conservative Party today, according to a poll conducted by The Strategic Counsel for The Globe and Mail/CTV News. That's down from 17 per cent in last month's poll and 22 per cent in the October election.

The Liberals, under new leader Michael Ignatieff, were the beneficiaries of much of the dissatisfaction, rising to 30-per-cent vote support from 24 per cent in February. The Bloc Québécois remains in first place in Quebec, with the support of 40 per cent of respondents.

The numbers suggest that the some of the 10 Conservative seats in Quebec are at risk, especially in and around Quebec City.

“Those ridings would definitely be in play with those numbers,” said Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo, noting the Conservatives seem to be in the “bad books of francophone Quebeckers.”

According to research firm Léger Marketing, the Conservatives have not been below 10 per cent in the polls since Dec. 2005.

The Conservatives started losing ground in Quebec in the last election over cuts to cultural programs, and their decline accelerated after a series of attacks by Prime Minister Stephen Harper in December against separatists forces in the province.

Nationally, the Conservative Party has the support of 35 per cent of respondents, a four-point lead over the Liberal Party at 31 per cent. The NDP is in third place at 16 per cent and the Green Party has 10 per cent.

In last month's Strategic Counsel poll, the Liberal Party was at 33 per cent nationally, enjoying a one-point lead over the Conservative Party.

Mr. Donolo said the Liberals were still struggling to break through with women voters, as well as residents in medium-size cities.

In addition, Mr. Harper obtained largely positive media coverage during Mr. Obama's one-day visit to the nation's capital Feb. 19.

“There is a bit of an afterglow of Obama. It didn't hurt Mr. Harper and the Conservatives to be seen in his presence, and to get the lion's share of the news from the Obama visit,” Mr. Donolo said.

The Strategic Counsel polled 1,000 respondents between March 5 and 8. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points at the national level and, given the smaller sample size, 6.3 points in Quebec.

In Quebec, some Conservative strategists and officials have been predicting their own decline ever since Mr. Harper started attacking a proposed Liberal-NDP coalition because it had Bloc Québécois support. Mr. Harper has not changed his strategy, brushing off a question in the House of Commons last week from the “separatist party.”

Still, the Conservatives have not written off the province, officially announcing over the weekend the creation of a new “structure” in Quebec to oversee the work of party organizers. Mr. Harper's Quebec lieutenant, Public Works Minister Christian Paradis, has told party workers he has obtained more financial resources for them in the province.

In addition, Mr. Paradis said the riding associations in Quebec will be able to join forces in regional clusters, given the province is already broken up in about 100 regional administrations.

“Individual ridings associations have been given additional flexibility,” a Tory official said.