Another poll

The polls seem to be all over the place. That said, it does seem clear that we do not have a commanding lead moving into the Fall. That doesn't mean an election is a bad idea but it does mean we should move cautiously.

Tories lead Liberals by 4 points: Poll

August 28, 2009

Richard J. Brennan      
OTTAWA BUREAU     

OTTAWA – Over the summer Canadians warmed up to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative party, according to the latest Toronto Star/Angus Reid poll.

However, regional disparities continue to be story as the Conservatives struggle to get anywhere near majority territory of about 40 per cent.

The survey conducted Aug. 25 and 26, shows that 34 per cent of decided voters — up 1 percentage point from July — would vote for the Conservatives compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals, down 4 percentage points since July.

The NDP is third with 18 per cent, up 2 percentage points, followed by the Greens with nine per cent or up 2 points and the Bloc Québécois with eight per cent or down 2 points. The Greens are leading the BQ for the first time this year.

The survey of 1,003 adult Canadians, conducted Aug. 25 and 26, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent 19 times out of 20.

The Conservatives continue to be clear favourites in Alberta with 62 per cent and both Manitoba and Saskatchewan with 51 per cent while they are holding onto 43 per cent support in British Columbia. However, the Conservatives in Quebec have virtually fallen off the radar with just 16 per cent support.

The survey shows the Liberals tied with the Bloc in Quebec at 33 per cent and hold a two-point lead over the Tories in Ontario, 37 per cent and 35 per cent respectively.
James Morton
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