He is a thoughtful and patient man.
He considers and plans and acts.
Yes, sometimes he over reaches and sometimes he mistakes the public mood but he is not rash or careless. Nor is he ignorant or stupid.
So why prorogue Parliament and lose all the legislative progress he has made on his Conservative agenda -- he could simply have extended the winter recess a touch. Wasn't he aware of the "re-set" button effect?
Well maybe he was aware and wanted a re-set.
Think on it -- he gives up legislation that, candidly, is ineffective although makes for good talk-radio sound bites. He reintroduces the same legislation again and gets the same sound bites. He may never have to worry about the practical effect of the legislation because it is mere theatre since it will never be law. (And who knows, maybe there is a Bill he really didn't want and this way he didn't withdraw it -- it died).
Maybe all the other excuses -- detainees, rejig the Senate etc etc are bogus?
(Detainees will be as big and issue later as now and the Senate is not a Conservative playground yet even with new appointments.)
I suspect prorogation was planned and intended for the re-set effect. Stephen Harper wanted to kill his legislative agenda so that he could rebuild it differently. The re-set button was pressed for the purpose of re-set.
9 comments:
Respectfully James, I think you're giving him far too much credit.
(And even if you're right, the timing on his prorogue after he'd stonewalled Parliament on documents and had his MP's boycott the Afghan committee on documents after Parliament had its Christmas break couldn't be worse - but then, those 2 events are probably why no one believes his reason he's giving as being the real one).
Harper will just bring all the lost crime bills back in another Omnibus Bill and make it another confidence vote again.
How can detainees be as big an issue later if the Conservatives have enough Senators to control all the committees so they can shut down all inquiries?
I doubt Harper is driven by his legislative agenda, at least within a minority parliament. What motivates this guy's actions is controlling timing in a manner that allows him to match his strengths against what he perceives are his opponents' vulnerabilities. That's how he got rid of Martin. That's precisely what he did to Dion after Labour Day, 2008 and, unless I'm completely wrong, that's what he had in mind for Iggy too.
This may not have worked for Harper this time but there's plenty of time for public indignation to recede. Harper's window for a showdown may be wide open again when Parliament returns.
I don't think that Ignatieff can keep this public discontent stoked for the next three months. He simply doesn't connect with the public that well. What's worse is that his "Thinkers' Conference" (which sounds as sophomoric as putting Harper "on probation") isn't until March. That leaves it open to Harper to call a snap election, turn it into a referendum on Iggy, all before the Libs have gotten off their arses to craft a meaningful policy platform.
Harper is still pushing on an open door while the Libs doze quietly in the corner.
I tend to agree with you here James. Like him or hate him, Harper is not a fool. Everything he does has a purpose. The prorogation of the house until after the Olympics essentially means that the opposition only have a month to make political hay about this before the story vanishes under the crushing avalanche of Olympic coverage.
Furthermore, a strong performance at the Olympics by our athletes (including men's hockey gold) will feed a rising tide of patriotism which will almost certainly benefit the sitting government.
While I don't think Harper expected this much blowback, I'm sure he knows that the Olympics will kill this story one way or the other.
I take it Stalin was a very smart man.
Yes, Stalin was a smart man but only in some ways. He wasn't smart enough to see what it meant that the German army was massing on his borders. But he was shrewd when it came to his political opponents or even potential rivals. He also controlled the message very, very tightly and used Commissars to monitor information and messaging. Harper too uses his own political commissars in the PMO to regulate outside questions to sensitive ministries (EnviroCan, DND) and to filter answers to what questions he's willing to permit to be taken. Exercising strict political control on communications between the bureaucracy and the media and general public is about as Stalinist as you can get within a democracy... and with only a minority government.
Smart people sometimes outfox themselves
Post a Comment