Now, in truth, the up and down between Christmas and the Olympics suggests that nobody's strength is very deep -- or maybe that Canadians are not focussing very closely on Federal politics (hard though that may be to believe). Still, the Conservatives are up:
Harper still shy of majority: poll
Tories would coast to win: Olympics make Canadians forget anger over proroging Parliament
By DAVID AKIN, Canwest News Service
March 2, 2010
http://tinyurl.com/ygu973r
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives would coast to an easy victory - but not necessarily a majority - if a federal election were held today, according to a new poll done exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National.
The Conservatives enjoyed the support of 37 per cent of voters across the country, followed by the Liberals with 29 per cent and the NDP with 16 per cent. In Quebec, 39 per cent of voters would cast their vote for the Bloc Québécois, pollster Ipsos Reid says. The Liberals were second in Quebec, with 25 per cent support, following by the Conservatives at 17 per cent and the NDP at 11 per cent.
5 comments:
Soon the hordes will arrive to tell you this is an outlier.
But we've heard the outlier story before the last time the Conservatives start to pull ahead. Time will tell, maybe it is an outlier, maybe it's not. We'll see what Ekos says this Thursday and the next poll after that.
One thing that is consistent across each of the polls this week that the outlier crowd was been refusing to admit though is that they all show that Ignatieff's approval ratings are below 20% and Layton beats him on every single leadership measure.
Liberals can deny their problems or they can work on them.
Thankfully they have people like you James who I'm sure will choose the work route.
Soon the hordes will arrive to tell you this is an outlier.
Yeah, Steve V. over at his blog Far and Wide is already spinning it that way. Robert Fife this afternoon on Power Play called Ipsos-Reid a known "trend-line setter", though...meaning that the other pollsters may soon be showing the same increase for the Conservatives. We'll see...
I wouldn't read too much into this poll - it's definitely an outlier, not consistent at ball with other recent polls.
That said, the trend is still toward a Conservative minority, though recent polls (though not this one) would see the Liberals and NDP together capable of defeating them and forming a government.
> Soon the hordes will arrive to tell you this is an outlier.
That's because it's an outlier. It says 37 Con - 29 Lib - 16 NDP
Compare with the Angus Reid poll (33 - 29 - 20) http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2010/03/new-angus-reid-poll-4-pt-conservative.html
And Environics (31 - 30 - 16) http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2010/02/new-environics-poll-1-pt-conservative.html
And even Ekos, which generally gives the Cons a 3-point bump (33 - 30 - 16) http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2010/02/new-ekos-poll-31-pt-conservative-lead.html
When people say it's an outlier, it's because it's an outlier.
Downes is flat out wrong. All polls he lists can be within the MOE.Consider ;Cons 34 Libs 29 NDP 17. All results accurate.
No election boys.Iggy will complain throw around some Latin phrases and support the budget.
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