Friday, June 4, 2010

Seat projections -- from the Globe

“A new poll by EKOS Research - a “classic feel bad” poll for the two main political parties, according to EKOS’s Frank Graves - has the Tories losing 21 seats if an election were held today.

 

Mr. Graves’ seat projections are based on his recent poll that has the Harper Conservatives falling to 31.7 per cent nationally after enjoying a 10 point lead for several weeks over the Liberals; the Ignatieff Liberals are still stuck - no matter what they do or say - at 26.2 per cent.

 

Currently, the Tories have 144 of 308 seats in the House of Commons; the Liberals have 77. Under Mr. Graves’ projections, however, the Liberals would gain nine more seats for 86 - so not bad for them but still not the 98 to 100 seats that some Liberals are saying Michael Ignatieff needs to win in the next election to hold on to his leadership.

 

The EKOS projections shows the NDP going from 36 to 42; the Bloc would increase their hold on Quebec, winning 56 seats compared to the 48 they have now. There are 75 seats in Quebec.

 

Under Mr. Graves’ scenario the Green Party would win no seats.

 

The Tories appear to be suffering the most in Quebec; Mr. Graves has them winning only five seats compared to the 11 they hold now.

 

In vote-rich Ontario, the two leading parties are virtually tied with the Tories winning 45 seats compared to 44 for the Liberals. Right now the Conservatives have 50 seats and the Liberals have 38.

 

This most recent EKOS poll shows no one even approaching majority territory; the Tories are still hovering around the 32 to 33 mark, which is far short of a majority.”

 

1 comment:

The Mound of Sound said...

Too bad the only one willing to pull the trigger is Harper. That gives him the initiative to call an election whenever the circumstances suit the Tories instead of the Liberals. That, James, is the price we pay for cowardice. As Tom Flanagan recently wrote, the Harper Cons are on a constant election footing, a posture that suits Harper's keen political instincts.

Like it or not, Ignatieff is guided by his personal political ambitions. Barring some miraculous political reversal, the next election will probably be Iggy's last as Liberal leader. In other words, his best option is to sit quietly in a corner hoping that Harper will somehow destroy himself.