But remember the voter turnout in the suburbs is lower than downtown

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"Mr. Ford has been riding a wave of taxpayer anger in the suburbs, where voters are eager for a candidate who will clamp down on city hall spending, Ipsos pollster John Wright noted. While Mr. Ford is ahead of Mr. Smitherman in the overall race by 11 points, his lead is significantly higher in the suburbs — in Etobicoke, for instance, Mr. Ford has a 35-point lead. And while about a third of downtown Torontonians say they would never vote for Mr. Ford, suburban voters appear more likely to rule out Mr. Smitherman.

"This is the suburbs candidate versus the city candidate, and suburbs are winning," Mr. Wright said. "[T]here is great antipathy in the downtown core toward Rob Ford getting in, but on the other hand there are a whole lot of people who would say, well, if he's going to get in, it sounds like he's going to shake things up.""