It suggests that a significant part of Pantalone's support would go to Ford should Pantalone drop out. Yes, the break is in favour of Smitherman but if the poll is believed, at least a third of remaining Pantalone's supporters have Ford as second choice.
And that makes sense only if Pantalone's supporters aren't in any way motivated by issues (and if not, what are they motivated by? Hairstyle?).
Smitherman is a candidate of the centre. Ford is a candidate of the right. Pantalone is a candidate of the left.
Pantalone's supporters won't go to Ford -- hence, the poll has to be flawed. The race is close but if Pantalone dropped out Smitherman gains.
National Post Staff, National Post
Friday, Oct. 15, 2010
A new poll released on Friday by Forum Research puts Rob Ford at a 6 percentage point lead over George Smitherman.
Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said the company independently paid for the poll because it's "good for the city."
The telephone survey of 700 people only included people who said they are voting. The margin of error is ±4%, 19 times out of 20. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, the day after trailing candidate 2010/10/13/breaking-rocco-rossi-drops-out-of-mayors- race
The poll shows support for each of the candidates among decided and leaning voters as follows:
- Rob Ford: 44%
- George Smitherman: 38%
- Joe Pantalone: 16%
- Other candidates: 2%
The 16% of respondents who said they are undecided were prompted to offer up who they are leaning towards, and those responses are included in the final results. It's in contrast to an Ipsos Reid poll completed before Mr. Rossi withdrew and2010/10/13/breaking-new-poll-shows-george-smithermand-and-rob-ford-in-dead-heat-for-mayors-chairthat showed Mr. Smitherman with a narrow lead of 31%, followed by Rob Ford at 30%, Mr. Pantalone at 11% and Mr. Rossi at 4%
"There's a lot of interest in this race," Mr. Bozinoff said.
Mr. Bozinoff said the results of the "hypothetical two-way race" shows that it's a dead heat between Mr. Smitherman and Mr. Ford, and Mr. Pantalone "could be a king maker if he gets out."
While Mr. Pantalone 2010/10/14/pantalone-presents-budget-plan-vows-to-stick-out-election-until-end the poll nonetheless quizzed voters on their intentions if Mr. Pantalone withdrew from the race.
The poll also asked voters their choice in the event of Mr. Pantalone's departure, revealing numbers that show Mr. Ford and Mr. Smitherman in a near-tie if the left-leaning current deputy mayor withdrew.
Race without Pantalone:
- Rob Ford: 49%
- George Smitherman: 48%
- Other candidates: 3%
- Undecided: 18%
4 comments:
Pantalone himself said Smitherman would be worse than Ford. Assuming his supporters are listening, wouldnt some of them actually believe him?
The only thing worse than Mayor Rob Ford would be Mayor George Smitherman, according to rival candidate Joe Pantalone.
From: http://www.torontosun.com/news/torontovotes2010/2010/10/12/15667646.html
The Deputy Mayor, who is locked in a tug-of-war over the progressive vote with Smitherman, made the dire prediction about the former deputy premier during a meeting with the Toronto Sun’s editorial board on Tuesday.
“George does not know how to manage. Look at his record, what has he really managed?” Pantalone told the Sun, before mentioning the $1-billion eHealth boondoggle. “I don’t think he’s managed anything, however, he’s got a veneer, thanks to the Toronto Star, which is why he can do no wrong, which has put him as a contender.
“(Smitherman) ought not to be a contender.”
And yet the second choice of many NDP voters in BC is the Conservative party. People who work for a living may find the union support of the NDP comforting but when you get right down to it they also prefer not to be taxed to death by the "centrist" candidate.
Morton, you might remember the CORE party in Ontario - the Confederation of Regions. They had a short period of time where they did really well; they were essentially the same as the Reform Party, but Ontario based, at the provincial level and a decade sooner. I told my fellow Liberals they would steal a good chuck of votes from the NDP. They thought I was an idiot, but that's exactly what happened. There is a sizable chuck of people who vote based on 'grassroots' issues. They generally see the left wing agenda as grassroots. They can often see the right wing agenda as grassroots as well. Ford has a grassroots campaign that will appeal to that segment of Pantalone's vote. It makes perfect sense.
Perhaps you are right. Many people have pointed out that voters are not "right" or "left" but rather vote instinctively. If so the policies don't matter as much as the persona... .
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