Why?
The Conservatives are doing well in the polls but the scandals keep coming and that will erode support -- it will not be riskless for them (better later? Well, maybe not but...). We Liberals could afford to wait a bit to see the Conservatives continue to flail about and slowly drift ever more to the social conservative side. The NDP will be wiped out if an election is held now; and their Leader (who is a big plus for them) is not yet fully back to strength (and he will be but not just yet). The Bloc, well, maybe they're ready.
I've been wrong before but I just don't see an election now.
7 comments:
I agree with your take on this, James. No election now if the Libs have any sense at all.
I will politely disagree. While the polls don't look good for the Liberals or the NDP, one should ask how these parties can do better by waiting a year. I asked that question to myself last year.
Leaders should not be governed by polls. They should make choices and hope that people's attitudes will change so that the polls will change in their favour. I do think that the Liberals' attack on the Conservative government's comtempt of Parliament will resonate with the voters in the long run if they can demonstrate that this contempt is hurting Canadians. The Liberal narrative on Harper and his contempt vs. Canadians may throw off the Conservatives' attempt to have an election about the economy.
The NDP will be wiped out if an election is held now;
Yesterday's poll from Nanos has the NDP at 20%, so how do you arrive at that conclusion.
RM,
You have a point -- I hadn't seen that poll and was relying on an older one. Certainly their Leader is a very big plus.
jm
I agree. Let the scandals percolate.
It would be a status quo result anyway, waste of our money.
James,
I'm not sure the "scandal percolation" theory will actually result in lower CPC pre-writ polls and gains for the LPC.
Think about the Chuck Cadman scandal. In and Out has been on the political radar for nearly 2 years. Sure, Guergis and Garth Turner were expelled; but Bernier got a slap on the wrist, Raitt defended, and Bev Oda is being protected. All the while, things hum along.
Will the 25% CPC base and their 8-10% cushion really be swayed by a creeping "social conservative" agenda? If anything, we're seeing the Cons use exactly their so-con agenda to lure new Canadians through government ministries. Will this upset any CURRENT CPC supporters? We're talking about principled positions to a voting block that, quite frankly, feels either: A) that the winner of the election (by seat total not vote proportion) makes the rules; or B) the ends justify the means.
It's better that progressives get this election over with. Work our tails off to take back lost LPC and NDP seats, win a moral victory, and let the CPC insiders sharpen their knives and tear the hair out of their heads after being shut out of a majority for a third election in a row.
Well, that plus the fact that what the NDP demanded, the NDP got.
I also echo McClelland's observations; seat projections for the NDP are pretty good right now. If there were a party facing disaster at the polls, it's the Liberals.
I would add that so long as the Liberals remain weak the Conservatives can continue to quietly reconfigure government departments and funding to contribute to the single objective fo their re-election. Time is running out not only for Ignatieff but for the left, suffering under a very weak Liberal party, in general.
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