Some slight trending to the Liberals. Greens weakening. NDP not moving.
At this rate we'll see more or less the same Parliament as last time around... .
8 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Yup.
This was very predictable. So it begs the question; Why the election?
The risk from the Lib perspective in my view is that the Cons. are so close to a majority that the slightest blip or even just a few lucky breaks on election night could give them a majority.
I would also point out though that the poll you are quoting has been the most favourable to the Libs throughout the campaign.
Actually anonymous 1 is a bit off. EKOS has fluctuated, but has generally reflected a closer gap. They've all bounced around a bit.
With one rare (and notable) exception, the polls have detected a general rise in Liberal fortunes.
And except for those with their heads buried in the sand (willingly or blindly), the reason we're having an election is a secretive, lying Prime Minister found in contempt of Parliament.
Certainly a far cry better reason than the two prorogations and elections of convenience the Prime Minister sought in recent years.
I'm sorry if you find the cornerstone of Democracy inconvenient.
Wow - inconvenienced by democracy and ignorant of parliamentary procedure. That's a real winner.
"polls" don't actually dictate whether or not a sitting PM has the confidence of the house. Members of Parliament make that decision.
The government fail on a confidence matter directly related to the contempt findings of the government.
It's not a matter of speculation or strategy. It's a fact. All the polling in the world wont' change it.
The liberals didn't "pull the pin" last year because the Parliament didn't support their rumblings that they had lost confidence in the PM. Hint, see the above explanation.
Lastly, you are the one who begged the question (your words) "Why the election?"
So I don't quite understand the "it doesn't matter why" attitude now.
I answered your question, and continue to correct your misstatements.
Perhaps next time you should do your own research. Understanding the civics of your own country is kind of important, though some candidates seem content to feed ignorance in order to maintain power.
They are all polling the same population but they come up with radically conflicting estimates so you really have to question all of them.
What we can conclude from them is pretty much what Mr. Morton suggests. The polls are not moving. The campaign seems to be in stasis for the present. We will need to see if any movement occurs between now and E-day.
You have to understand that the contempt vote was theater.
It is my view that ALL the politicians are in contempt of Canadians.
The Liberals did not pull the pin last year because they would have got trounced at the polls.I believe the other parties were prepared to go.
It is all about self preservation with them.
That's why I asked Why the election now.The Libs were not likely to win and it appears now even more so now that they won't.
Does their loss (Libs) mean that Canadians are OK with Contemptuous governments?
No.
I don't Guarantee a Lib loss but if they do I am certain that the Lefties will come out of the woodwork and blame the timing of the election as a fatal error. The reasons for the election won't matter to them; Only the result.
A civics lesson I do not need. I never called the election illegitimate I only question the Libs timing.
The timing may have had more to do with the Libs getting impatient with Ignatieff's waffling.
I guess we will find out over the next 12 days the exact rationale, but lets assume for the sake of argument, the next parliament looks almost identical to the current one with a few marginal seats changing. I would take this as meaning none of the parties were able to give voters a good enough reason to vote differently than they did last time. In a typical election, usually over 75% of people will vote the same way they did in the previous one thus unless the party they voted for really angers them or another party attracts them towards them, they will vote the same way as before. Even when the Liberals lost power in 2006, if one does a riding by riding analysis, you will notice the vast majority voted the same way as 2004, rather a small minority shifted and it was enough to tip the balance but the last time we had a radical swing in voting patterns was 1993. In that case I would estimate close to half the population voted differently than in 1988.
8 comments:
Yup.
This was very predictable. So it begs the question; Why the election?
The risk from the Lib perspective in my view is that the Cons. are so close to a majority that the slightest blip or even just a few lucky breaks on election night could give them a majority.
I would also point out though that the poll you are quoting has been the most favourable to the Libs throughout the campaign.
Actually anonymous 1 is a bit off. EKOS has fluctuated, but has generally reflected a closer gap. They've all bounced around a bit.
With one rare (and notable) exception, the polls have detected a general rise in Liberal fortunes.
And except for those with their heads buried in the sand (willingly or blindly), the reason we're having an election is a secretive, lying Prime Minister found in contempt of Parliament.
Certainly a far cry better reason than the two prorogations and elections of convenience the Prime Minister sought in recent years.
I'm sorry if you find the cornerstone of Democracy inconvenient.
Anon2;
That may be the reason cited by the opposition but the polling is suggesting that no one is buying it.
The contempt of parliament is just the excuse.
The Libs were prepared to pull the pin mid last year for a completely different reason (remeber "your time is up"?)but they backed down.
The breakdown after May 2 may well be that the Libs mistimed the election call. It has nothing to do with why it was called.
Wow I feel like Im being spun like a top anonymously.
Wow - inconvenienced by democracy and ignorant of parliamentary procedure. That's a real winner.
"polls" don't actually dictate whether or not a sitting PM has the confidence of the house. Members of Parliament make that decision.
The government fail on a confidence matter directly related to the contempt findings of the government.
It's not a matter of speculation or strategy. It's a fact. All the polling in the world wont' change it.
The liberals didn't "pull the pin" last year because the Parliament didn't support their rumblings that they had lost confidence in the PM. Hint, see the above explanation.
Lastly, you are the one who begged the question (your words) "Why the election?"
So I don't quite understand the "it doesn't matter why" attitude now.
I answered your question, and continue to correct your misstatements.
Perhaps next time you should do your own research. Understanding the civics of your own country is kind of important, though some candidates seem content to feed ignorance in order to maintain power.
Ignore the estimates from each poll.
They are all polling the same population but they come up with radically conflicting estimates so you really have to question all of them.
What we can conclude from them is pretty much what Mr. Morton suggests. The polls are not moving. The campaign seems to be in stasis for the present. We will need to see if any movement occurs between now and E-day.
Last anon;
Big words; Ignorant, woo.
You have to understand that the contempt vote was theater.
It is my view that ALL the politicians are in contempt of Canadians.
The Liberals did not pull the pin last year because they would have got trounced at the polls.I believe the other parties were prepared to go.
It is all about self preservation with them.
That's why I asked Why the election now.The Libs were not likely to win and it appears now even more so now that they won't.
Does their loss (Libs) mean that Canadians are OK with Contemptuous governments?
No.
I don't Guarantee a Lib loss but if they do I am certain that the Lefties will come out of the woodwork and blame the timing of the election as a fatal error.
The reasons for the election won't matter to them; Only the result.
A civics lesson I do not need. I never called the election illegitimate I only question the Libs timing.
The timing may have had more to do with the Libs getting impatient with Ignatieff's waffling.
I guess we will find out over the next 12 days the exact rationale, but lets assume for the sake of argument, the next parliament looks almost identical to the current one with a few marginal seats changing. I would take this as meaning none of the parties were able to give voters a good enough reason to vote differently than they did last time. In a typical election, usually over 75% of people will vote the same way they did in the previous one thus unless the party they voted for really angers them or another party attracts them towards them, they will vote the same way as before. Even when the Liberals lost power in 2006, if one does a riding by riding analysis, you will notice the vast majority voted the same way as 2004, rather a small minority shifted and it was enough to tip the balance but the last time we had a radical swing in voting patterns was 1993. In that case I would estimate close to half the population voted differently than in 1988.
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