Friday, March 23, 2012

Signs show Harper Conservatives’ popularity beginning to slip

I'm not completely convinced these poll numbers are right. That said, governments are not defeated by others, they defeat themselves:

http://natpo.st/GRFeID

"The Environics poll had the Conservatives and NDP tied on 30%, with the Liberals back on 20% support. In the by-election, Liberal Grant Gordon saw his party's share of the vote rise by 11%, even though he lost to New Democrat Craig Scott.

The common trait in both these stories is the relative decline of the Conservatives. Most polls have been showing the Tories slipping since the party won nearly 40% of the vote in last May's election but the Environics survey suggests they are actually in danger of relinquishing first place. In the Danforth by-election, Conservative support tumbled 9% to just 5%.

These are worrying numbers for the Harper government. Some of the slide can be blamed on the robocall saga and fears about the upcoming budget. But there is a deeper malaise. Too many middle-class Canadians, particularly in Eastern Canada, feel they are under siege.

A [external] new study released by the Vanier Institute for the Family Thursday will make grim reading for the Tories. Income security remains "an elusive dream" for many, the authors concluded – and the situation is getting worse. Debt loads remain high – averaging $103,000 per family. There are 1.7 million families with a debt servicing ratio of 40% or more, making them vulnerable to rising interest rates. At the same time, family saving rates are dwindling – down to 4% of disposable income from 13% in 1990."

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I believe this poll is right on the mark. Most pollsters are Conservative hacks and like you to believe their team is the best. i.e. yesterdays online poll. Now all we have to do is get rid of Rae and we will be back in the running.

Anonymous said...

See Decima...cons 31.Ndp 28.Libs 24....

Fred from BC said...

Angus Reid came out with a poll the very next day that had the Conservatives back at 37%, the NDP at 29% and the Liberals at 21%. So no, that poll is not "right on the mark", sorry.

(as a general rule, whenever a poll comes out with a radically reduced or increased number for one party, *wait* for confirmation by another poll. It never lasts...)