Thursday, July 19, 2012

Liberals up significantly in Quebec

This is (perhaps) significant.

The NDP wave in Quebec was not so much a move to the NDP as a move away from everyone else.

To keep their position the NDP must convince Quebec they are the right Party -- this suggests they are having issues. Of course the new Liberal leader will be a factor also...

"The Liberals were well behind at 26.5 per cent, but that was a slight increase from the previous poll. And they were up significantly in Quebec, from 17.3 per cent support to 25 per cent.

It is a climb that is not easy to explain. "The only thing that has been on the agenda has been speculation about the Liberal leadership in the province of Quebec and who might be running and who might not be running and whether anyone from Quebec might be running," said Mr. Nanos.

But the Quebec numbers are going to be the ones to watch for a number of reasons, he said.

"First of all, they are critical to the New Democrats in terms of remaining the opposition," said Mr. Nanos. "Second of all, the numbers for the Tories are flat in Quebec and the Liberals at least have had a good wave of polling."

A poll of this size is expected to accurately reflect the broad opinions of the Canadian population within 2.8 percentage points. Regional margins are higher."


Anonymous said...

Up 25%?

I would point out that the Conservatives got a majority without Quebec. not as important as it once was.

Que. voters are the most fickle in the country. Even if an election were called tomorrow it is likely the results would be wildly different in that province.

Stephen Downes said...

It would appear that the major reason for the improvement in Liberal numbers is the news that Bob Rae will not be seeking the leadership.

Hardly a ringing endorsement.

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