All we can hope is that this prediction is very wrong. Was it just last fall that we heard there will be no deficit???
Julian Beltrame
THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA_ The recession will sink the federal government into a $155.9-billion hole over the next five years and cost hundreds of thousands of Canadians their jobs, the parliamentary budget officer predicts.
In a report to be released Wednesday, budget officer Kevin Page calculates that even in the year 2013-14, when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says Canada will return to surplus, Ottawa will still have a $16.7-billion deficit.
The projections are close to double the accumulated $84.9-billion deficit over five years estimated by the January budget.
But it's in the area of jobs, or the number that will disappear over the next five years, that Page's report contains the biggest shock.
According to sources, the budget officer predicts between 190,000 and 270,000 fewer Canadian jobs this year than estimated in the budget.
James Morton
1100-5255 Yonge Street
Toronto, Ontario
M2N 6P4
416 225 2777
4 comments:
OK, the first think is not to panic.
When the crisis hit, we knew - based on the Japanese example - that there would be a significant cost to the recovery.
The alternative, quite plausibility, was economic ruin on a massive scale. So it was a bitter pill we had to swallow.
As we see here - http://www.budget.gc.ca/2009/plan/bpc1-eng.asp - the Conservative's projection was of a cost of about $90 billion over five years. I don't think anyone - not even the Conservatives - believed that figure.
The new figures, anticipating a $160 cost, are probably closer to the mark. But even these fall short of the (rather more likely) $200 billion figure we were hearing in 2008.
So - first of all - let's not all get huffy about the scale of the Conservative Party's error. It's not that far off, as these things go, only about 50 percent (what Liberal can claim better accuracy right now?). And it's not even an error yet - we're dealing with a projection here, not fact.
Second, although the Conservatives are talking up fire-sales of government assets, which they should *not* be doing in the middle of a recession, the reality is that a lot of this spending has been to *acquire* assets. Some of these (like car companies) may not be as valuable as we would hope. But others - *if* the Conservatives have widely tied support to ownership stakes - should have some value. Sale of these assets, at the appropriate time, should recoup much of the accumulated cost of the bailout and deficit.
The government spends $250 billion a year. The projected $16 billion deficit remaining after five years isn't a big deal - indeed, it could be recouped almost entirely by reversing the Conservatives' ill-considered tax cuts. And even without increased revenue (such as, say, a petrochemical and resources based royalty windfall) the deficit is still about 6 percent of government spending. Small cuts in spending and transfers can make this up.
So - based on the information we have here - there's no reason to panic. And it's irresponsible to blow this up into a bigger deal than it is.
Somehow I don't feel the same comfort about the future under Harper as Downes analysis suggest we should feel. Apart from the attempted deceit, attempted whitewashing, misinformation and no information...the 'access to' kind and otherwise, there also seems to be a matter of competence; Harper's lack of.
Perhaps some folks like a
"Sneaky", incompetent ridden government more than others.
Where is all the money going? I know the GST should never have been cut, neither the tax cuts for the well off, Big corp. tax cuts.Have some guts and take them back, and do not sell Assets, as they will pay in the long run and stop spending money on many foolish things, just to get votes.
The popular comment layout is common, so it is easily recognized when scanning to post a comment. If the comment section is in a different format, then I am going to spend more time trying to decipher what everything means.
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