In the most obvious sense they mean what they say -- a larger number of people surveyed on the date of survey preferred the Conservatives than preferred the Liberals.
But people are asking deeper questions -- things like "does this mean a Conservative sweep" or "does this mean Conservative majorities from the next election onward"?
And as to those question the answer is no. The structure of Canadian politics, for the present, makes a majority difficult for any party to achieve. Conservative support is heavily concentrated in the West -- if they win a riding by one vote or 20,000 they still only win one riding. So opinion polls, which are not based on ridings, can be misleading.
That said, there is no doubt the poll numbers are a powerful message.
The Conservatives are doing well and we are not doing what we need to do, especially in Ontario.
Regardless, and because of the NDP (who would do poorly in an election now), we are not going into an election at least for the immediate future. That means we have time to work on Ontario especially and turn the numbers around.
The Leader is a powerful passionate speaker and someone who will attract voters - my sense is he has not been shown to English Canadians as he is, passionate, compassionate, intelligent and engaged but that presentation will change. Moreover, there is a remarkable front bench in the Liberal Party and that front bench is a huge asset.
One day at a time!
James Morton
1100-5255 Yonge Street
Toronto, Ontario
M2N 6P4
416 225 2777
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