In the most obvious sense they mean what they say -- a larger number of people surveyed on the date of survey preferred the Conservatives than preferred the Liberals.
But people are asking deeper questions -- things like "does this mean a Conservative sweep" or "does this mean Conservative majorities from the next election onward"?
And as to those question the answer is no. The structure of Canadian politics, for the present, makes a majority difficult for any party to achieve. Conservative support is heavily concentrated in the West -- if they win a riding by one vote or 20,000 they still only win one riding. So opinion polls, which are not based on ridings, can be misleading.
That said, there is no doubt the poll numbers are a powerful message.
The Conservatives are doing well and we are not doing what we need to do, especially in Ontario.
Regardless, and because of the NDP (who would do poorly in an election now), we are not going into an election at least for the immediate future. That means we have time to work on Ontario especially and turn the numbers around.
The Leader is a powerful passionate speaker and someone who will attract voters - my sense is he has not been shown to English Canadians as he is, passionate, compassionate, intelligent and engaged but that presentation will change. Moreover, there is a remarkable front bench in the Liberal Party and that front bench is a huge asset.
One day at a time!
James Morton
1100-5255 Yonge Street
Toronto, Ontario
M2N 6P4
416 225 2777
7 comments:
A regular voter does not watch or follow politcs closely.
The Ottawa bubble stuff faux outrage has not resonated.
The public have been stating for months, work together or else.
Confirmed voters from EACH party favour NO election.(40%)
Liberal Party ignoring their own confirmed voters.
Stop the games.
When we are "sick" of the CPC we will toss them out, like we did to BM, JC/PM Liberals.
@CanadianSense: why should the CPC be the only party allowed to play games, and get away with it?
It seems that the government will only deliver anything under threats (of an election like EI reform, or from the supreme court like protecting Canadians in foreign countries).
Many voters may not want an election, but it seems one of the few things the government responds to at all. Isn't that a partisan game?
Rational Number,
my comments reflect the Polls since September when the Liberals threatened another election.
Perception vs Reality, many bloggers from each camp ignore the regular voter at their own peril.
If the CPC are going to be punished the public sentiment will be reflected in the polls.
The two issues your raised are examples of a disconnect from reality.
The CPC are spending Billions, too much according the everyone in opposition. (Deficit is Harper)
Can you list ONE example the opposition proposed a "CUT" in funding?
The CPC are out of control drunken sailor check the PBO what are the biggest areas of spending.
Compare that to the Liberals for the last 13 years.
Rational Number are you suggesting the government is racist?
Brown skin Canadians are less protected, really?
(That silly talking point is exactly the games in Ottawa turning off regular voters)
Remeber the wafer story, tasteless jokes, plagerism, unsexy comments, puffins etc.
That stuff does NOT matter outside Ottawa bubble.
The Liberals were wrong in Sudbury to adopt the NDP strategy of promising to vote against every bill before reading it.
The Bloc at least pretend to read it on a case by case basis.
One thing...the piano "playing", duped the audience and the public, as well as the media running down the Liberals, as if being paid by someone to do it.
So youth unemployment is extremely high. Could someone tell me how the pollsters poll those with cell phones.
The worrying thing for the Liberals is Conservative gains in Ontario. I assume this must refer to the elusive 905.
905 has gone Tory provincially (Harris). There is no reason why it couldn't federally. And the failure to win more seats in the 905 was a big reason the Conservatives failed to obtain their majority.
That is where they've been working.
The Conservatives are pretty much finished in Quebec, so they need to pick up another ten ridings elsewhere just to keep the seats they have now.
Polls also tend to distribute undecided voters across the parties. That poll had what, 25% of respondents undecided?
Then you have to consider that, during the last election, the number of people who voted for the winning party was only slightly more than half the number who didn't vote at all.
The Liberals polling poorly isn't that much of a problem in the grand scheme of things. The overall quality of politicians in Canada is pretty damn low.
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