'Guergisized' Tories fall back into tie with Liberals

This issue doesn't go to policy but to perception. The facts seem to suggest an arrogance of power -- the sort of thing that hurt us in the last federal government. In truth, the behaviour of one or two Party members, Conservative or Liberal, really doesn't speak to the ethos of the Party itself. But it has an effect:

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Jane Taber

Helena Guergis and her husband Rahim Jaffer are doing what Michael Ignatieff's Liberals could not – shake up the electorate and provoke a Tory slide, according to a new poll.

And now there is growing speculation of a snap election if life becomes even more difficult for Stephen Harper's Conservatives.

The latest EKOS numbers show the Tories statistically tied with the Liberals after weeks of what pollster Frank Graves describes as "entrenched gridlock."

"The resignation and controversy around Helena Guergis and her husband seems to have jumpstarted a moribund electorate in a way that ideas and debate could not," he says.

His survey this week gives the Conservatives 31.4 per cent support – a drop of slightly more than two points since last week. The Liberals have 29 per cent – an increase of two points.The NDP are at 16.4 per cent; the Bloc is polling at 8.8 per cent and the Green Party has the support of 11.1 per cent of Canadians, the poll says.

But it's the Tory movement – small as it is – that's causing intrigue.

"Obviously, highly speculative this week but if things worsen for the government over the coming week, speculation about a snap election will become almost as interesting as the prurient innuendos swirling about Jaffer and Guergis," Mr. Graves says.